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Sunday, 25 August 2013

FCPO : Hourly, Daily and Weekly Outlook 25th Aug 2013

FCPO

Lets look at Long term first. (Weekly)



If you look at above chart, I included trendlines, harmonic patterns, Fibo Retracement and Fibo Time Extension.


Based on harmonic pattern, it is forming a Bullish Bat pattern. Where the 1st TP already reached at 161.8% Fibo. On the EW side, the sideway movement that we faced almost a year, seems already ended in July when the price broke the 2230 range and lowest to 2137. This sideway movement, i identify it as wave 4 downtrend. So, if I am right, we are heading for wave 5 downside.
The 2nd TP for this pattern is at 261.8% Fibo, where the end of this pattern seem to end at almost similar area to the trendline support 1700-1800. By taking Fibo Time Extension, the estimation price to arrive to this level is in January 2014. So, shall i short March 2014 contract now? If this analysis is correct, then a potential of profit about more 500pts.

When the price reach at this level, then only i expecting palm oil will rally to higher price. Maybe could near 3000. Once reach this level, we should consider/looking at cheaper/cheapest plantation stock.


Daily Outlook


 From the daily, I drawed the trendlines that is connected from previous head to head of HnS. And the price is almost there, where that level will be tested on Monday, 26th Aug. If fail to break, then, price will fall to 1st level, ~2347, 2nd at 2323 and 3rd, it will test again at previous resistance area ~2286 which on 38.2% retracement. We shall see whether it can break the support trendline or not.


Hourly Outlook


On Hourly, price will reach the resistance trendline tomorrow. There are 2 resistance trendlines that are crossing to each other at the same area with Fibo Time Extension. If you refer to daily chart, this level is another resistance trendline formed by head to head of previous head and shoulder. It could be a strong resistance to break.



This is just an analysis. My interpretation might be wrong or misleading. I shall not be responsible for any losses incurred if you using my analysis for your trading judgement.