Poll

What indicators that you mainly use in Technical Analysis (TA)?
Moving Average (SMA/EMA)
RSI
Stochastic
MACD
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo
Volume
Momentum
Poll Maker

Wednesday, 21 March 2012

Request: GAMUDA bullish or bearish?

On a request from my visitor asking about GAMUDA, lets share with me any thought you have in mind.

Let's go for TA.
Yesterday (20/3) share went up 12cent after drop 8cent within 5days before.
Today share has dropped 12cent and closed at RM3.62.
Seems like yesterday up was a fake one.
If really bearish, share price would drop to RM3.60 and RM3.55.
Observing today trade, buy rate was 43% and transaction buy rate was 72% which shown interest buyer on the counter.

After market closed, announcement regarding MRT tunneling project, where MMC & Gamuda JV clinched the package.
If the share already play upfront from Dec 2011 until Feb 2012, then tomorrow another sell down. Some people quote a phrase "buy on speculate, sell on news".

Latest Announcement
EPF & KWAP disposed small unit of shares after accumulate for some time. If today drop due to EPF selling, then tomorrow same thing can happen.



HLIB made a buy call due to tunnelling through. Please read below.

Tunnelling through
  • In MRT Corp's press release yesterday, MMC-Gamuda JV (50:50 stake) hasbeen awarded the 9.5km underground tunnelling works and seven undergroundstations for the Sungai Buloh-Kajang MRT line for RM8.2bn.
  • Replenishment success' With thelatest award, Gamuda has successfully replenished its outstanding order book byan additional RM4.1bn (after adjusting for its 50% stake), bringing its totaloutstanding order book to ~RM6.1bn, translating to 3.3x FY11's constructionorder book and has removed lingering concern on the company's dwindling orderbook.
  • 15.9 sen/share' By assuming a PATmargin of 8%, the tunnelling contract is worth ~15.9 sen/share for Gamuda.
  • Earlier than expected' We are encouragedby the increasing momentum in which MRT Corp has been expediting the contractawards.
  • Circle line next' By securing thistunnelling contract, we believe that MMC-Gamuda JV now stands a higher chancein securing additional tunnelling works for the next MRT line which is known asthe Circle line.
  • Maintain BUY as Gamuda has successfully secured both MRT tunnellingcontract and the PDP role. Potential catalyst for Gemas-Johor EDTP project.

Source: HLIB Research 21 March 2012


4 comments:

  1. Hi, just wanna learn something from you.. from the chart.. can i say that the support zone is 3.54 and the resistance zone is 3.74?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi.
      yup. If you check chart and turn on the pivot line, then u can see clearly the support and resistance zone.
      support <3.58
      resistance >3.69
      if u use ichimoku, also can identify by using cloud.

      Delete
  2. Hi Berid, thanks for doing Gamuda. Yesterday there was a lot of selling and today it was not announced that EPF was doing the selling. A new warrant gamuda-cx is expected to be listed tomorrow by CIMB with the exercise price of 3.65 (see http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS/edmsweb.nsf/all/C36B32722C599186482579C9000072C4/$File/Table%20_Launching_%20-%20GAMUDA%20CW.pdf). Do you think CIMB is pushing down Gamuda mother prior to the listing tomorrow?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. FYI, if yesterday selling is due to EPF, you wont see the announcement by today.. atleast after 1week they will announce.
      if CW issue, not quite sure CIMB push mother down. it is better to push mother up, so more people will buy its warrant.. after many buy high, they will cash out money..

      Delete